A defined supplement-prevention question
NCI’s SELECT summary describes a trial involving more than 35,000 men, funded primarily by NCI and conducted by SWOG. Eligibility began at age 50 for African-American men and 55 for other participants. The study tested supplements for prevention, not treatment of existing prostate cancer. [1]
The vitamin E intervention was 400 IU daily of synthetic dl-alpha-tocopheryl acetate, alone or with selenium, compared with placebo groups. The population, form and amount should remain attached to any interpretation. [1]
Relative risk is not the same as percentage-point change
NCI reports that after an average of seven years, the vitamin-E-only group had a 17% relative increase in prostate-cancer diagnoses compared with placebo. Its illustration gives 76 cases per 1,000 men versus 65 per 1,000, a difference of 11 per 1,000 over that period. [1]
The follow-up included approximately 5.5 years taking the supplements and 1.5 years after they had stopped. A 17% relative increase does not mean that 17 additional men in every 100 developed cancer. [1]
Keep the denominator visible
Imagine a reader sees only the phrase “17% increase.” Using NCI’s illustration, subtracting 65 from 76 gives 11 additional diagnoses per 1,000 men, or 1.1 percentage points over the stated period.
That arithmetic explains the trial summary. It is not an individualized risk prediction for a person with a different age, exposure or follow-up.
| Observation | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Placebo illustration | 65 diagnoses per 1,000 men |
| Vitamin E illustration | 76 diagnoses per 1,000 men |
| Absolute difference | 11 per 1,000 over the stated follow-up |
Do not generalize the finding to every source of vitamin E
NCI advises against taking vitamin E or selenium supplements for cancer prevention on the basis of the trial evidence. This does not establish that ordinary vitamin-E-containing foods cause the same effect as the tested regimen. [1]
This page reports NCI’s explanation rather than an independent trial reappraisal. It does not verify all author disclosures or corrections, and it makes no claim that every vitamin E preparation has been studied equivalently. [1]

Sources for this article
- NCI — SELECT: Questions and Answers
Source consulted: 2026-09-17. This is a reference resource, not a claim that we conducted the studies or tested a product.